Watching TD 7 Remnants

Overnight Tropical Storm Gordon formed out in the northern Atlantic, but, as expected, it will not be impacting the US as it moves eastward towards Europe.  It is expected to become a hurricane for a short time, but will not strengthen much more than a category 1 before sucking in drier air and moving over cooler waters.   That’s all there is to say about Gordon.

Here is a shot of Gordon, which is located about 34N 52W or 750 miles ENE of Bermuda. Way out there and moving away from the US!

Closer to home, TD 7 remnants have moved across the Yucatan, and, as some models have been advertising the last couple of days, into the Bay of Campeche where the remnants are showing some signs of organizing.

Here is a visible shot right before sunset this evening showing areas of convection and some banding features associated with a low to mid-level rotation that is beginning to take shape…

Movement of the center seemed to be erratic, but, generally, west-northwest.  It will be interesting to see where the center anchors beneath the convection because that will have an impact on how long the center will remain over water and, if the center forms closer to the Yucatan, could shift the impact zone from northern Mexico/Southern TX farther north along the TX coast.

A look at this evening’s model runs…

They show the WNW track continuing into Mexico.  However, what will be interesting is if the front that is sliding into East TX tomorrow will weaken the Bermuda high and cause this disturbance to take a bit of a jog northward by Saturday evening as it will be approaching the Mexico/south TX coast.  The atmosphere is fairly conducive for additional organization and strengthening assuming the center can tighten up and get established (closed).  Obviously the water is plenty warm in the Gulf.

Intensity models…a big conflict between the intensity models and guidance.  The guidance shows the disturbance impacting Mexico by 24-36 hours whereas most intensity models expect a tropical storm in 36 hours and beyond.  Of course, once the disturbance is over land, strengthening stops.

At this time it is too early to say what the system will do exactly.  The National Hurricane Center is watching it as well as the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Rainfall/flooding meteorologists).  The HPC is projecting a Mexico impact for rain, however, our rain chances increase beginning tomorrow through the weekend in response to a weak front moving south from the plains which will be a focus for rain and thunderstorms.  Here is a surface map from the HPC showing the Low in the Gulf and the slow moving front.

The map above is the forecast for Sunday Morning. By then the tropical system is very near land, if it maintains its direction and speed.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon.  Weather Spectrum will keep you posted on the outcome of that flight and the overall progress of the system.

Our local rain chances increase substantially Saturday afternoon into Monday.  HPC is forecasting about an inch of rainfall for much of the area during that 24 hour period with higher totals along a line from Alexandria, LA to Conroe, TX to Midland/Odessa, TX.

Note the small bulls-eye on the Mexico gulf coast…that’s the disturbance.

We’ll see what happens over the next couple of days.  Again, Weather Spectrum is tracking the progress and will update as often as possible.

Have an excellent Friday and start to the weekend!